The U.S. has supposedly provided a “15-point plan” to Pakistan which has supposedly passed it on to Iran.
I have no idea what’s in that plan, nor what Iran’s reaction has been. But I do have some ideas about what would be a reasonable response by Iran. If I were in their shoes, this would be my starting point for negotiations:
- We can resume enriching uranium, and start enriching it to levels that would allow us to build a nuclear weapon.
- We can proceed to developing a nuclear weapon.
- We can accelerate work on intermediate and long-range ballistic missiles.
- We can continue to arm proxy organizations throughout the region.
- The U.S. and Israel will pay us substantial reparations so we can rebuild destroyed facilities.
- The U.S. and Israel will apologize for attacking us and killing our senior government officials.
- Once these items have been agreed to, Israel and the U.S. will stop attacking Iran. Iran will stop attacking Israel, the U.S. and other Gulf states, except that we reserve the right to use military force in the Strait of Hormuz, and against other oil export facilities, such as those on the Red Sea.
- As progress is made on these items, we will gradually reopen the Strait, under strict Iranian control, with the right to approve, inspect, and tax every cargo, in perpetuity.
Now, I wouldn’t expect the U.S. or Israel to agree to all that, but it seems like a reasonable starting point for negotiations.
Trump is such a moron for having put us in such a situation. And he’s such a crappy negotiator, that I suspect we’ll end up with something very much like that before the war is over.
Oh, and I’m upgrading (downgrading?) my stagflation forecast to be more inflationary and more recessionary than I’d been assuming.
